With US federal debt to GDP ratio at 122% or 34.7 trillions, it seems hard to imagine lower interest rates in the foreseeable future. A look at the long-term chart of the US 30 year T-Bond yield going back to 1981 suggests that the trend for lower interest rates is over and out. The level of 4.20% held sturdy from 2003 to 2008, where a break to the downside paved the way for returns close to zero.
However, the 4.20% level has been clearly broken to the upside (currently 4.71%) and puts focus on the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement from the low at 6.32%, based on the entire 0.7% to 15.21% range traded since March 1981. China sold a record $53.3 billion worth of Treasurys and agency bonds in the first-quarter of 2024. If other large holders of US treasuries follow, it is clear in which direction bond yields will go
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