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S&P 500 - Bear market rally?

by Timothy Straiton
Wednesday 15th April 2020

S&P 500 - Bear market rally?

 

The current level of the S&P500 index is 2846 trading 6% below the falling 200 day moving average, currently at 3014 and now above the Fibonacci 50% retracement level of 2811, measured from the 3386 -2237 range. Is there more to this rally? Of course it's a possibility that we will trade toward the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of 2947 if we get better news on the corona virus. Additional financial stimulus and general market optimism could help. The 14 day relative strength index is at 56% and not yet into overbought territory. We would regard the current optimism as a chance to hedge equity holdings and prepare for the fundamentals to influence market action. With 15 million jobless claims in three weeks, a massive drop in personal and corporate consumption, miserable business and consumer confidence, it would no surprise to see this market test the recent lows seen in the end of March.


 

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