The Euro USD closed the week at 1.1841 and has broken the falling trend resistance line which originated in July 2008 at 1.6038. While the 14 week relative strength index is at 68% and approaching overbought levels, short-term pull backs can be expected.
This should not deter from the fact that since 2015 the downside fantasy has been extremely limited and it appears that a solid 5 year basing process has been established. The Euro us trading at 6% above its 40 week moving average which is not yet excessive. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.2132 which is the Fibonacci 50% retracement from the high measured over the entire 1.6038 - 0.8225 range. Further out, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement from the high comes in at 1.3053.